As usual, many thanks for the periodic update. No wave for 8+ months is indeed good news, but I find it perplexing:
1) “… whether because it’s been a hot summer…” – surely can’t be that because there was a sizeable wave in Singapore in May (whence I caught it after my wife changed planes there on the way home)? Is there really any evidence that it can be too hot for the virus?
2) “… variants arrived not too long after the Spring vaccine booster campaign which provided extra protection to many elderly or otherwise clinically vulnerable people” – Is that really true since there has been so few cases since? Evidently a lot of unvaxxed people are now unaffected by it. Are the people hospitalized those who eschewed vaccination? A Jan 25 piece on BBC stated: “… antibody levels, the most easily measured form of immunity, do not seem to be notably contributing to our ability to blunt the latest forms of Covid.” ]https://www.bbc.co.uk/future/article/20250113-why-covid-19-is-becoming-less-deadly ]
4) The BBC article mentions a time of ‘astronomical’ amounts of virus in wastewater but few people critically ill. Now we have low levels in wastewater but still few critically ill. So how useful is that wastewater data? Could it be that some strains are not so readily shed into sewage – e.g. more like a head cold? (Personally I’m interested in the possibility of strains that have a pronounced gastrointestinal effect, since I’ve noticed chronic changes since my own infection – could I be a super-shedder?)
5) No one mentions the word but are we now experiencing the fabled ‘herd immunity’?
6) I think it would be helpful for someone to do an article that delineates the various hypotheses about what is happening.
7) My guess is that among scientists privately there are plenty of heated discussions and theories about what is happening, but they are unwilling to talk openly about it for fear of getting it wrong or misinterpreted, especially in the RW MSM. Are you one of them?
I would say the number of cases is highly dependent on the number of tests done. In Ontario they hardly test anyone anymore and there is no more death recorded and very low 0.5 in 100,000 hospitalization rate.
Indeed – this is a Trump modus operandi – stop measuring and the problem goes away, something he’s now trying with climate.
It’s such a pity, the initial response to C19 was so remarkable, but now there seems to be widespread collusion to look the other way. How many tests are carried out? How assiduously are they done? To what extent do tests show positive for new variants. Is there a linear relationship between wastewater levels and human infections? Etc., etc….
Most viruses have very few tests, with flu being the exception. Sarbecovirus is boring and people lost interest in it. To see the number of tests, check out the "Tests" tab of https://www.cdc.gov/nrevss/php/dashboard/index.html
You may have already addressed this previously Christina, but why are we seeing poor uptake of the spring campaigns, especially considering the scope is so narrow? Why is there low appetite amongst the most vulnerable? Many thanks for all the hard work you put into this work.
Thank you! Do you have data on Long Covid trends in the UK ?
Increasingly, Long Covid (PASC, or Post acute sequelae of covid-19), is turning out to be of greater recent impact on health than the acute phase of covid, and long covid does not seem to correlate to the severity of the acute infection.
For that reason, as well as the sometimes impact of acute infection on those who are medically vulnerable, I always greet this admittedly excellent news with the caveat that the virus is still out there, and still causing grave illness to some.
Thank you again for the clarity and precision of your post.
There is a small summer wave. A small one.
Is there any good reason why we do not have some/more wastewater monitoring in England? Surely we could pick reflective areas.
As usual, many thanks for the periodic update. No wave for 8+ months is indeed good news, but I find it perplexing:
1) “… whether because it’s been a hot summer…” – surely can’t be that because there was a sizeable wave in Singapore in May (whence I caught it after my wife changed planes there on the way home)? Is there really any evidence that it can be too hot for the virus?
2) “… variants arrived not too long after the Spring vaccine booster campaign which provided extra protection to many elderly or otherwise clinically vulnerable people” – Is that really true since there has been so few cases since? Evidently a lot of unvaxxed people are now unaffected by it. Are the people hospitalized those who eschewed vaccination? A Jan 25 piece on BBC stated: “… antibody levels, the most easily measured form of immunity, do not seem to be notably contributing to our ability to blunt the latest forms of Covid.” ]https://www.bbc.co.uk/future/article/20250113-why-covid-19-is-becoming-less-deadly ]
3) That BBC piece (about the mystery of the mildness of current strains) turned out to be completely at odds with the June NHS warning of a virulent strain https://www.england.nhs.uk/north-west/2025/06/12/last-call-for-vital-jabs-as-virulent-new-strain-of-covid-19-circulates/
4) The BBC article mentions a time of ‘astronomical’ amounts of virus in wastewater but few people critically ill. Now we have low levels in wastewater but still few critically ill. So how useful is that wastewater data? Could it be that some strains are not so readily shed into sewage – e.g. more like a head cold? (Personally I’m interested in the possibility of strains that have a pronounced gastrointestinal effect, since I’ve noticed chronic changes since my own infection – could I be a super-shedder?)
5) No one mentions the word but are we now experiencing the fabled ‘herd immunity’?
6) I think it would be helpful for someone to do an article that delineates the various hypotheses about what is happening.
7) My guess is that among scientists privately there are plenty of heated discussions and theories about what is happening, but they are unwilling to talk openly about it for fear of getting it wrong or misinterpreted, especially in the RW MSM. Are you one of them?
Apologies, this was far too long ...
I would say the number of cases is highly dependent on the number of tests done. In Ontario they hardly test anyone anymore and there is no more death recorded and very low 0.5 in 100,000 hospitalization rate.
Source: https://www.publichealthontario.ca/en/Data-and-Analysis/Infectious-Disease/Respiratory-Virus-Tool
Indeed – this is a Trump modus operandi – stop measuring and the problem goes away, something he’s now trying with climate.
It’s such a pity, the initial response to C19 was so remarkable, but now there seems to be widespread collusion to look the other way. How many tests are carried out? How assiduously are they done? To what extent do tests show positive for new variants. Is there a linear relationship between wastewater levels and human infections? Etc., etc….
Most viruses have very few tests, with flu being the exception. Sarbecovirus is boring and people lost interest in it. To see the number of tests, check out the "Tests" tab of https://www.cdc.gov/nrevss/php/dashboard/index.html
the heat is more about people spending time outside. In Singapore (at least when I was there) it was so hot, people were mostly indoors with A/C...
You may have already addressed this previously Christina, but why are we seeing poor uptake of the spring campaigns, especially considering the scope is so narrow? Why is there low appetite amongst the most vulnerable? Many thanks for all the hard work you put into this work.
I know some people who have skipped boosters for fear that vaccine interaction may harm their heart or blood circulation problems.
There are many vulnerable people like me in the UK that find your information essential to help decide how we interact with the population.
Thank you is not a big enough word! (I typed it as one word but phone insists it’s two)
Thank you so much Christina, that's such good news.
Thank you! Do you have data on Long Covid trends in the UK ?
Increasingly, Long Covid (PASC, or Post acute sequelae of covid-19), is turning out to be of greater recent impact on health than the acute phase of covid, and long covid does not seem to correlate to the severity of the acute infection.
For that reason, as well as the sometimes impact of acute infection on those who are medically vulnerable, I always greet this admittedly excellent news with the caveat that the virus is still out there, and still causing grave illness to some.
Thank you again for the clarity and precision of your post.
Thank you very much for the update. Really appreciated 🙂🙏
Thank you so much. Very clear and accessible as always.
🙏 🙏 🙏