Current Covid situation in UK and what might be coming

We've had a four months of very low Covid levels in UK - but there are some new variants to watch out for

Current levels of Covid in the UK

Both hospital and wastewater measurements agree that we’ve had a very quiet winter in terms of Covid infection levels. Hospital admissions have been stable and low since the beginning of November 2024 - so that’s four months now. We’ve not seen such a long stable period since the start of the pandemic.

This probably saved the NHS this winter given the large 2024/25 flu wave - you can see very clearly how both Covid and Flu rose together in the winters of 2022/23 and 2023/24.

Of course, hospital data is limited by reduced testing since 2023 and only people sick enough to be in hospital being tested. That’s where wastewater testing is useful, because it doesn’t depend on testing behaviour (or symptoms) and so gives a fair representation of levels of Covid in the community.

England (stupidly in my opinion) stopped wastewater testing in March 2022, but Scotland still does it. The latest data from there shows exactly the same picture as hospitalisations - very low levels for the last several months.

Several European countries monitor wastewater as well - and show the same situation, including Ireland, Austria, Netherlands, Finland and Belgium. I’ve shown Belgium below where you can see a very similar pattern to the hospital admissions in England - a drop and then steady low state since November 2024.

There is simply no evidence of high Covid levels in the UK since November, and we should be thankful for that.

A couple of variants to watch out for

That said, there are a few things happening now in the variant space that are worth keeping an eye on. In England there are two closely related variants on the rise: LP.8.1 (darker blue) and LP.8.1.1 (lighter blue). They emerged towards the end of last year and now comprise about a third of newly sequenced cases. It is possible that they will become dominant but not be immune evasive enough to cause a significant wave, especially with the advent of warmer weather where people spend more time outside or with the windows open. But if a new Covid wave starts in England soon, it will come from these variants and it’s something I will keep an eye on over the coming weeks.

The second thing to watch out for is the re-emergence of Omicron BA.3 in South Africa after three years of nothing (!). It faded pretty quickly back in the winter of 2022 because it could not compete with BA.1, BA.2 and BA.5 which caused massive UK waves in January, March and July 2022 repsectively. However, it seems that it has been evolving quietly and significantly in someone with a chronic Covid infection (likely immunocompromised) and that recently it has started spreading to other people. Note that we don’t know where it emerged - just that it has been spotted in South Africa first.

It is still lacking some key mutations that might help it spread more easily, but if it picks them up it could cause the next big global wave. It’s very early days and could still easily just fade away but this is also something I’ll be keeping an eye on over the coming months. Also worth noting that LP.8.1 is growing rapidly in South Africa at the moment, just as it is here.

To summarise, we’ve had by far the quietest Covid winter since the start of the pandemic but there are signs that activity might rise again over the spring and summer.