Is it really a super flu year?
We're in the middle of a serious flu wave, but we just can't tell yet how bad it's going to be. Week-on-week comparisons are being used in a misleading way!
I am getting pretty fed up with headlines like this. Yes - the number of people in hospital with flu jumped by 55% this week. But that’s normal in the upswing of a winter flu season! Equally - yes the peak has yet to come, but again, that is literally what it means to be on the upwards phase of a flu wave. We’ve not peaked yet. This does NOT mean this is a worse flu season than normal!
Below is a plot of year-by-year comparison of hospital admissions with flu using the latest data up to 30 November 2025. Yes, this year’s flu season started a few weeks earlier than normal (leading to breathless comparisons of number of admissions this year compared to the same week last year - which are always pointless in my opinion as the timing shifts year to year). But otherwise, its pattern looks very similar to 2022/23 and 2024/25.
So far the biggest increase in admissions was last week (69%) but this is normal for the rising phase of a flu season. At a similar point in the wave last year the increase was 61% and 70% the year before that.
The important question is whether this year’s flu season will peak soon (and so we have a serious flu wave but a ‘normal’ serious flu wave, just shifted a few weeks earlier) or whether it will keep going up and only peak at towards the end of the year in which case it will be a terrible flu season - i.e. are we in scenario A or scenario B in the chart below. We don’t know! The data simply doesn’t tell us that!
We do know that this week’s increase in admissions was 23%, down from last week’s 69% which suggests we might be the nearing the peak, which would chime with Option A (normal size, shifted early) rather than Option B (terrible). But both are still possible, as are strange double peaks like we saw in 2023/24.
So why are NHS leaders and the newspapers sounding the alarm? Well, the NHS never copes well in winter and this year is no exception. Also, I imagine they want to put pressure on doctors not to strike. And we do know that this year’s flu strain is less well matched to the vaccine than normal and so more people are likely susceptible to this years’s virus.
But we see these sorts of headlines every year - it’s the sheer predictability of these headlines and the lack of any real plan to stabilise the NHS over winter that should be the front page story! Not some - in my opinion - highly misleading use of statistics!
PS Yes, get a flu vaccine (it’s not too late). Yes, if you’re sick avoid mixing with people as much as you can and wear a mask (preferably an FFP2 one). Yes, if you are in a crowded indoor space, you might consider wearing a mask to reduce your chance of infection (again, make sure it’s an FFP2 one). But this is good practice every winter!
PPS Covid admissions rose for the second week in a row at the end of November (although they are still relatively low - and far lower than flu). A new Covid wave now would be terrible timing with Christmas approaching, but there are reports of a new variant circling which is potentially driving new waves.
Really useful report, thank you. It really surprises me that UKHSA and NHSE seem to put panic pieces out on social media trying to warn people about handwashing etc with little reference to mask wearing and ventilation!! I had both flu and Covid jabs on 1st October and we had been made aware before then that the flu season had started early. It continues to surprise me that those with responsibility for public health appear to try and ‘close the gate when the horse has bolted’. The public health communications are poor, late and sometimes non existent. Doctors on BBC today suggested it wasn’t clear cut about the importance of masks and a Headteacher talked about washing hands and cleaning classrooms. Again no mention of masks and ventilation. Have they not read the evidence available from reputable scientists??!!
Bob says early stats (Scotland) suggest reasonable protection against hospitalisation for most vulnerable; i.e. reasonable match between vaccine & current flu circulating. Guess we will see. Thanks again.