Latest Covid update for England: 12 Oct 2023

Admissions continue to rise, although slower than last week

A look at the latest Covid numbers in England, covering admissions, deaths, the autumn vaccine booster programme and other respiratory viruses.

Hospital admissions in England

The number of people admitted with Covid increased again this week, but by 12% instead of last week’s 25%. So good news that it’s slowed down, but not good news that it’s still going up. The number people reported as being in hospital primarily because of Covid has also increased.

Regionally, the highest number of admissions were in the South West and the North East & Yorkshire, with biggest increases in the South West (27% up) and lowest in the South East (4% up).

Although the vast majority of Covid admissions are in adults, I want to highlight that admissions in 0 to 5 year olds are once again at relatively high levels. This age group has been more vulnerable to hospital admission than older children throughout the pandemic, but this difference has become much starker over the past year. This is because those aged 0 to 5 face a triple whammy: younger children, especially under 1’s, are more vulnerable to respiratory infections in general; they are less likely to have any protection from previous infection (especially infants born in the last year or two); the large majority are not eligible for a Covid-19 vaccine, despite a safe and effective vaccine being available.

Deaths in England and Wales

The number of people dying in England and Wales with Covid contributing to their death saw a welcome small drop in the week to 29 September. This likely corresponds to the modest drop in hospital admissions we saw in mid-September. Recent increases in admissions suggest that, sadly, weekly deaths are likely to increase over the coming weeks.

Autumn booster programme

The campaign is progressing reasonably well, with over 5 million boosters given to date. Uptake in the over 65s now stands at 36% (and a disappointing 40% in the over 80s). Uptake is quite a bit lower in the immunocompromised, health care workers and carers for vulnerable people. Overall (including the over 65s), uptake is around 24% using the NHS England estimate of about 21 million eligible people in England.

Is it flu, Covid or a cold?

Good question. If you are an adult and have cold/flu symptoms then the most recent UKHSA data suggests that it’s almost certainly not the flu (red line in the chart). It is probably either Covid (green line in the chart) or a cold (rhinovirus, purple line).

The respiratory virus RSV is also starting to increase before winter, but it is currently affecting primarily the under 5s rather than adults.

Summary

We are still in a Covid wave and the recent autumn heatwave is ending. If you want to steer clear of getting Covid, remember to open windows if possible when indoors with others and consider wearing a well-fitting FFP2 mask on public transport or other crowded, indoor, poorly ventilated spaces. To protect others, I would certainly wear them in healthcare settings.

PS thanks as ever to Bob Hawkins for helping with some of the charts.