Update on Covid in England: current wave has peaked, while RSV has started its winter wave

I expect another wave before winter is out though

UKHSA has reverted to publishing its surveillance report weekly, which includes admission rates to hospital for Covid, Flu and RSV. The latest data, up to 21 October 2024, shows that the most recent Covid wave is definitely on its way down - welcome news, given it came only a month or two after the significant summer Covid wave.

Unfortunately, the Scottish wastewater dashboard hasn’t been updated since this summer, so we don’t have any wastewater information on general population prevalence in the UK. That said, waterwater monitoring from Belgium, Denmark and Ireland all show a Sept/Oct peak, with levels that are now coming down.

Flu is still at very low levels, but RSV has definitely started its annual winter increase. At the moment, if you have cold or flu symptoms, it is very unlikely to be flu! Instead it’s likely to be either a common cold (rhinovirus) or Covid.

Unfortunately, judging by last winter, when there was also a September/October Covid wave, there is plenty of potential for there to be another significant Covid wave before winter is out. Combined with RSV and Flu single annual spike, this would cause significant additional strain on the NHS.

Vaccination

There is increasing evidence that an annual Covid booster not only reduces chance of developing severe disease, but also boosts your antibody levels for up to a year , reduces your chance of infection, and protects against new Long Covid. As pointed out by Prof Devi Sridhar this week, other countries like the US, Australia and Canada, offer a free annual booster to all adults. In contrast, the UK is shrinking its vaccine offer every year.

UKHSA report that for those eligible, the autumn 2024 booster campaign currently has 30-50% coverage. Particularly concerning is that the lowest coverage is among clinically at risk groups. Please, if you are eligible, do consider topping up your protection with a booster. And don’t forget a flu vaccine too! They can be easily booked via the NHS.

Given that the beneficial impact of an annual Covid booster is only becoming clearer as more evidence accumulates, I hope that the JCVI consider other outcomes such as reducing Long Covid in their future decision making on the UK vaccine offer.