Well the latest results of the ONS Covid Winter Infection Survey are in and they are, frankly, eye-popping. The estimated prevalence (percentage of infected people) in England as of a week ago (4.3%) is already as high as the Covid wave last December and rapidly approaching the peak of the July 2022 wave (5.8%). Given this wave has only just started (for instance subvariant JN.1 is only just reaching dominance) and that we are heading into Christmas, this wave has a lot of potential to grow significantly bigger.
This is unfortunate but extremely predictable. The government hasn't issued any guidance or useful messages unlike CDC in the US or Germany where the Health Minister was talking about Covid. The situation is going to get a lot worse unfortunately.
And remember, they have STOPPED testing for covid among those admitted to hospital, so the TRUE covid hospitalisation figures, when this current Xmas wave peaks, for those in with covid as main factor, will be perhaps HIGHER than any previous wave, certainly near equal to the previous peak hospitalisation level for covid.
Keep up the vital work.
There are few enough scientific voices reporting covid accurately now,
but your voice remains the most accurate, focused and talented of them all.
But in this case it is your advice from that Analysis that is the most, and fundamentally important, part.
Given the nuts decision to FORBID vaccine boosters to under 65 years, and the maths now mean it is INEVITABLE that this wave will , especially in hospitalisations, rival the worst waves we saw in earlier years, it would further worsen government nuttiness if they decide NOT to, albeit far too belatedly, OFFER ALL those spare millions of vaccines they are going to bin,
to be distributed among the over 65s, ESPECIALLY those aged over 50.
Thank you for the update. Although have had the booster, am upping my mask wearing as well. Anecdotally hearing of more people testing positive locally here in Essex and could do without catching anything whilst coming off steroids 😬
Just about the same as Millie. She was abandoned at around 3 months so her start date is flexible! Have fun with them. I raided Pets At Home this afternoon for some Christmas toys for her.
How accurate do you think the hospitalization numbers are? I keep seeing anecdotal reports of people being hospitalized but not getting tested for COVID.
I don't know why more people are not worried about getting Long Covid. It's a terrible condition but people just ignore it. We have, as a social group in the UK, behaved terribly where Covid is concerned. Mitigations were actively avoided almost from the start and still are. Anti-vaxers and Covid deniers were allowed public platforms and with no rebuttal. We have shown ourselves to be selfish, poorly educated and careless. It has all (incl. Brexit) seriously dented my feelings about my fellow countrymen and women and the place I used to be proud to call home. The future is feeling pretty bleak here now.
Great update and sadly getting that feeling of deja deja vu! When will we ever learn that prevention is the only option because there's no cure for long covid.
This is unfortunate but extremely predictable. The government hasn't issued any guidance or useful messages unlike CDC in the US or Germany where the Health Minister was talking about Covid. The situation is going to get a lot worse unfortunately.
And remember, they have STOPPED testing for covid among those admitted to hospital, so the TRUE covid hospitalisation figures, when this current Xmas wave peaks, for those in with covid as main factor, will be perhaps HIGHER than any previous wave, certainly near equal to the previous peak hospitalisation level for covid.
Keep up the vital work.
There are few enough scientific voices reporting covid accurately now,
but your voice remains the most accurate, focused and talented of them all.
Great Analysis as usual.
But in this case it is your advice from that Analysis that is the most, and fundamentally important, part.
Given the nuts decision to FORBID vaccine boosters to under 65 years, and the maths now mean it is INEVITABLE that this wave will , especially in hospitalisations, rival the worst waves we saw in earlier years, it would further worsen government nuttiness if they decide NOT to, albeit far too belatedly, OFFER ALL those spare millions of vaccines they are going to bin,
to be distributed among the over 65s, ESPECIALLY those aged over 50.
Lots of trains being cancelled, LNER saying ‘shortage of train crew’, LNW being straightforward ‘staff sickness’.
Thanks for these updates. Yikes 6% in London. It's going to smash records in no time
Thank you for the update. Although have had the booster, am upping my mask wearing as well. Anecdotally hearing of more people testing positive locally here in Essex and could do without catching anything whilst coming off steroids 😬
Thank you for keeping us up to date.
Wishing you and your family (plus kittens) a well earned break!
Merry Christmas
Kittens!? I missed that. Kittens At Christmas are such joy. Mine is one now. Still full of wonder.
15 months old now! :-)
Just about the same as Millie. She was abandoned at around 3 months so her start date is flexible! Have fun with them. I raided Pets At Home this afternoon for some Christmas toys for her.
Thanks once again for keeping us up-to-date with actual facts and figures. We're relying on you. Stay well and enjoy the festive season.
How accurate do you think the hospitalization numbers are? I keep seeing anecdotal reports of people being hospitalized but not getting tested for COVID.
Do you know if the survey examined the rate of asymptomatic infection?
Thanks so much for your work.
Looks like symptoms are asked in the accompanying questionnaire (https://www.ons.gov.uk/surveys/informationforhouseholdsandindividuals/householdandindividualsurveys/wintercoronaviruscovid19infectionstudy/howtotakepart), but it is not mentioned in the subsequent analysis by UKHSA.
Flying over on Saturday, my guess is less than five passengers masking during the flight.
And thank you, as always! Hope you and your loved ones have a lovely Christmas and no one catches any kind of infection 🍀
Thank you for keeping us updated Christina, your work in this and other areas in invaluable!
Yikes!
And I'm off to an appointment at Wexham hospital this pm - in Slough, a notorious covid hot spot.
And I will have to take my mask off in the treatment room; there'll be about 4 people in there.
Nosocomial roulette.
May the odds be ever in your favour (The Hunger Games)
I don't know why more people are not worried about getting Long Covid. It's a terrible condition but people just ignore it. We have, as a social group in the UK, behaved terribly where Covid is concerned. Mitigations were actively avoided almost from the start and still are. Anti-vaxers and Covid deniers were allowed public platforms and with no rebuttal. We have shown ourselves to be selfish, poorly educated and careless. It has all (incl. Brexit) seriously dented my feelings about my fellow countrymen and women and the place I used to be proud to call home. The future is feeling pretty bleak here now.
Great update and sadly getting that feeling of deja deja vu! When will we ever learn that prevention is the only option because there's no cure for long covid.